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        Tightening supply in the copper mine market

        On Thursday, LME copper rose sharply. As of 15:00 Beijing time, LME copper reported 6321.5 US dollars/ton in three months, up 1.37% daily. Shanghai Copper's main contract in 2008 continued to rise sharply, with a maximum of 50,800 yuan/ton, a minimum of 49,890 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 50,700 yuan/ton, which was 1.81% higher than the previous trading day's closing price; the trading volume was 144,126 hands, an increase of 23,891 hands; Hold 120,798 lots, increasing by 2,766 lots. The base difference is -120 yuan/ton; Shanghai Copper's 2008-2009 price difference is 30 yuan/ton.

        Market focus: (1) In June 2020, China's CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, expected to increase by 2.5%, and the previous value increased by 2.4%; PPI decreased by 3% year-on-year, expected to decline by 3.2%, and the previous value decreased by 3.7%. (2) The union of the largest copper producer in the world, the Chilean National Copper Company (Codelco), said on Wednesday that nearly 3,000 miners have been infected with the new coronavirus, prompting it to call again for more safety measures.

        Spot analysis: On July 9, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 50440-50720 yuan/ton, with an average price of 50580 yuan/ton, and a daily increase of 730 yuan/ton. Copper prices are booming, the downstream keeps watching, the price gap between the two months is obviously narrowed within the day, the holders are entangled, close to delivery, the contradiction between cashing and the willingness to rise is difficult, and traders are hard to do. And cooperate.

        Warehouse receipts inventory: Thursday Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 41,462 tons, an increase of 1173 tons a day, a continuous increase of 5 days; July 8th, LME copper inventory was 192025 tons, a daily decrease of 3800 tons, a continuous decline of 16 days.

        Main positions: Shanghai Copper's main 2008 top 20 long positions with 77,080 hands, with an increase of 2526 hands, short positions with 82,677 hands, with an increase of 2,961 hands, with a net short position of 5,597 hands, with a daily increase of 435 hands, both long and short positions increased, and headroom increased.

        Market research and judgment: Shanghai Copper continued to rise sharply on July 9th. The situation of the South American epidemic continues to be fermented, affecting the production and transportation of local copper mines, resulting in tighter supply in the copper mine market; tight raw materials production costs have moved up, domestic smelters have increased maintenance and reduced production, and it is expected that electrolytic copper production will further decline, supporting copper prices . However, the downstream demand has weakened recently, the domestic copper rod processing fee has been lowered, and Shanghai copper stocks have rebounded; coupled with the widening of the scrap price gap, and the abundant scrap copper import quotas, the copper price has been restricted. On the spot market, copper prices rose sharply, and the downstream remained on the sidelines. The price gap narrowed significantly every other day during the day, and the holders struggled. Technically, Shanghai Copper's 2008 contract mainstream long positions have a large increase in position, standing above the 50,000 mark, and short-term shocks are expected to be strong. In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai Copper 2008 contract can be long light positions around 50,500 yuan/ton, and the stop loss is 50,300 yuan/ton.

        Source: Cable Network
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